Election Cycles and Stock Market Reaction: International Evidence*
Received: Jul 13, 2015; Revised: Aug 03, 2015; Revised: Aug 28, 2015; Accepted: Oct 23, 2015
Published Online: Dec 31, 2015
Abstract
This study investigates movements of stock market volatility during election periods (the six months before and after an election) using data from 16 countries. The main findings of this study are (1) volatility declines over time as elections approach, (2) the level of volatility during election periods is lower than that during nonelection periods, and (3) volatility rises quickly during election months and immediately after the elections. The first and second findings confirm assertions made in previous studies, such as Pantzalis, Stangeland, and Turtle (2000) and Wisniewski (2009), regarding the dynamic pattern of stock market volatility during election years.
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