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Korean Journal of Policy Studies
Graduate School of Public Administration, Seoul National University

Korean J. Policy Stud. 2020; 35(3):141-168

pISSN: 1225-5017, eISSN: 2765-2807

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52372/kjps35307

Article

Estimation of the Impact of Comprehensive COVID-19 Testing in South Korea: A Cost-Benefit Analysis Using the Extended SEIR Model*

Kilkon Ko1, Minjun Hong2
1Kilkon Ko is a professor in the Graduate School of Public Administration at Seoul National University, Korea Public Administration Research Center, and the director of Asia Regional Information Center at SNUAC. E-mail: kilkon@snu.ac.kr.
2Minjun Hong is a master’s student in the Graduate School of Public Administration at Seoul National University and a research assistant at the Asia Regional Information Center. E-mail: hmj2815@snu.ac.kr.

© Copyright 2020 Graduate School of Public Administration, Seoul National University. This is an Open-Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Received: Aug 13, 2020; Revised: Aug 15, 2020; Revised: Sep 07, 2020; Accepted: Oct 13, 2020

Published Online: Dec 31, 2020

Abstract

Comprehensive COVID-19 diagnostic testing is regarded as a critical in preventing the spread of the virus, but only a few studies thus far have sought to assess the net benefits that sustained testing might offer, despite the importance accorded by researchers to evidence-based policy making. We performed a costbenefit analysis using the extended SEIR model to assess whether maintaining the current level of COVID-19 testing is an economically rational choice compared with counterfactual scenarios. Our results suggest that the relationship between the net benefits and the level of testing assumes an inverted-U shape, which means that comprehensive diagnostic testing is effective in flattening the infection curve, but it is a financial burden to society. This study provides evidence that comprehensive diagnostic testing would not be a good strategy for countries with scant financial and medical resources, considering the costs. Furthermore, undertaking comprehensive diagnostic testing without implementing other strategies is a limited approach to preventing the spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, this study suggests that policy makers should find ways to improve the effectiveness of tests, not just increase the level of tests.

Keywords: COVID-19; cost-benefit analysis; comprehensive diagnostic testing; epidemiological model